Apart from all the boring facts and figures that I will be posting in a minute I am putting up a poll for guessing the winner of the 2006 elections. You’re supposed to guess the winner and not vote for your preferred party (although the two might correspond if you're optimistic ).

I’m voting for Fidesz on the poll - not because I think they have better politics or do more efficient electioneering. Simply because an important number of Hungarians have no real devotion to either of the leading parties and since they are never satisfied with their living standard they will always vote against the existing governing party. Hungary has not yet had the same governing party for two consequent 4-year terms and it is not likely to happen right now. Personally I think this is a pity because every new government starts with demolishing, undermining or at least deferring whatever was started by the previous government - without the slightest consideration...

For all who speak (or at least understand) Hungarian and wish to follow the 2006 election here is a site on Index: http://index.hu/politika/belfold/2006/valasztas dedicated to articles related to the coming elections.
You will also find a public opinion poll where you will see which party is presently in the lead.

A little sum-up for those not too familiar with Hungarian political parties:

Parliamentary parties since 2002:

Magyar Szocialista Part (MSZP): Hungarian Socialist Party (major party forming the present government (2002-2006))

Fidesz: Magyar Polgári Párt Alliance of Young Democrats - Civic Party (major party of the ex-government (1998-2002))

Szabad Demokratak Szovetsege (SZDSZ): Alliance of Free Democrats (minor party forming the present government)

Magyar Demokrata Fórum (MDF): Hungarian Democratic Forum (major party of ex-government a long-long time ago, now allies to the Fidesz)



As you can see in the above figure Hungary is practically a two-party country. (Although this might change but I very much doubt it will)

Other parties standing up for the 2006 elections:

Független Kisgazdapárt: Independent Smallholder's Party - party protecting the interests of the agriculture (former allies of the Fidesz in the ex-government)

Harmadik út: Hungarian Justice and Life Party – Movement for a Better Hungary the Third Way alliance of parties (Magyar Igazság és Élet Pártja – Jobbik Magyarországért Mozgalom a Harmadik Út pártszövetség) - party with strong national feelings

Magyar Kommunista Munkáspárt (MKP): Hungarian Communist Workers' Party - practically the ex-governing communist party

For those who wish to have a greater insight to Hungarian politics I would propose Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Hungary

Alice

There will be a big mesh, the worst case is a Fidesz-Mszp coalition.....

I can't imagine that they would ever form a coalition... who would ever vote for either of them after that?

Somebody asked me what was the main difference between MSZP (socialisit party) and Fidesz (civic party).

Not much really. Fidesz is supposed to be more right wing but in fact both of them have a socialist campaign. Since Hungarians in general are not doing all too well financially socialist measures are always more popular. The only real difference of which I am aware of is that Fidesz has a rather conservative attitude while MSZP is much more liberal (ready to form an alliance with SZDSZ - the liberalists). Fidesz also has some members best described as extremists - I personally think that their would-be deputy prime minister (don't ask me what that is, it didn't exist so far and I hope it won't in the future either) Mikola, is one of them. He actually frightens me. Quite a few of his latest speeches led to a real scandal. He did apologies for some of them; still I won't be much assured if the second leading man of Hungary will be someone who excites against the "hoards of singles" marching on the Andrássy road listening to music called "techno". So it's a crime not to have found the man or woman of your life but you can add insult to injury by daring to listen to "techno" music. Somebody please tell me that the man isn't insane.

As a reaction the SZDSZ proposed a new game: "Best of Mikola" - send in the most hilarious statements of Mikola and win a flight to New York (as an allusion to the series "Sex and New York").

Panem et circenses!

Alice

Well i'm back for a while.

Big election today. I ve read the comments on this thread with some interest. I can't vote but if i could i would be voting to keep the current government. They are not communists or really socialists as many people seem to think so. They have made Hungary a good investment prospect for many companies, things have really started to open up here. As a foreigner i suppose it isn't as passionate for me as it is for Hungarians. There seems to be a lot of hate between Fidesz supporters and MSZP, this is a real shame. But am i alone in not trusting Mr Orban? He just comes across as power mad. Mad eyes and a terrible choice in suits. Some of my friends are rabid in their support for this chap. Almost godlike affection. Slightly worrying. Wheras old Ferenc G comes across like the Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger, perhaps with a hint of a 50 year old Harry Potter. Mind you that Ibolya Davids can do strange things to a chap when viewed after a few pints. Is she good looking or not? All about angles and light i guess. Well whatever happens, don't forget to vote.



On another note, hope everybody is well and enjoying the spring.

I think that Alice is 100% right.

So what exactly happened last night.....i was watching the coverage and saw MSZP celebrating and fidesz upset. From what i saw the former had 43% and the latter 42%.
However there is another round on April 23rd?? So no-one has officially won yet??
In the UK, the election is a drawn out process but at least you know who won on the evening!!
Its all very confusing!!

Maybe it's a naive question but I wonder why the poll at top of the topic doesn't have a "No advice" option.
Was it intentional, or should it be to consider that blank votes are prohibited in Hungary ?

definetily too much dumb

Anyway long life Hungary

Hi everybody,

Nice to see you all back

HM wrote:

In the UK, the election is a drawn out process but at least you know who won on the evening!! Its all very confusing!!

It sure is confusing at first sight. Even at second sight

I'll try to explain. There was a very good diagram in HVG but I couldn't find it in their on-line magazine so I'll just have to do my best.

There are three ways for the MPs to be elected:

1. Immediate representative: every electoral district votes for an immediate representative - the person who will represent the district in the Parliament. Most of the immediate representative candidates belong to a party but not necessarily.

2. Regional list: every party that has a certain number of candidates in a certain number of electoral districts can create a regional list with a maximum of 7 candidates on such lists.

3. Country list: every party that has a certain number of regional lists may create a country list with any number of candidates on it.

So what happens in the elections.

In the 1st round one votes in one's own district and gets two papers:
- one with the names of the immediate representative candidates
- and one with the regional lists of the parties for the region in which one's own district is.

Electors do not vote directly for the country list.

I'll explain the regional list first, it's more simple. Votes are added up in the whole country and the percent of each party is calculated. This is how MSZP reached 43% and Fidesz 42%. The candidates listed on the regional list of a party get in the Parliament in proportion to the calculated percents and (I think) the particular votes for the regional list on which their names appeared. Any fractional votes that are not enough to get somebody in the Parliament are added up and will make out the votes for the country list.
However those parties who do not reach 5% with their regional lists cannot send any MPs and their votes will not count for the country list either (at least that's what I think).

The votes for the immediate representative candidates are added up in each district. Those who manage to get more than 50% of the votes in the first round become MPs and the votes of the other candidates contribute to the country list. If nobody manages to reach 50% a 2nd round is held for those who have reached more than 15% or the first 3 candidates. In the 2nd round whoever has the majority of the votes wins. The votes cast in the 1st round for the other candidates who participated in the 2nd round but didn't win contribute again to the country list.

All the votes that contribute to the country list are added up and again a certain number of candidates on the country lists get in the Parliament.

I know it's a bit complicated but it assures that nearly none of the votes get lost - they count for the regional lists or for the country lists.

Alice

_________________
I wonder if I shall fall right through the earth!
How funny it’ll seem to come out among the people
that walk with their heads downwards!

Say Parker, and everybody else who follows Hungarian politics, what do you reckon, will Dávid Ibolya make it to Prime minister? Fidesz hasn't got much of a chance without the MDF and she seems pretty stubborn on not forming a coalition. In fact, I heard she was already offered the post of the Prime minister (that was her initial condition for a coalition) today but she wouldn't give an official reply before tomorrow. Wow. Just imagine - the mouse that roared She doesn't really seem to be fit to be Prime minister but she definitely got herself a key position now. What do you think?

Can't wait for the saga to continue...

So, who won the elections? I didn't get that...